Scientist Tipping Points

Functie­omschrijving

Are you passionate about understanding the physical mechanisms behind climate change? As a scientist in climate physics and dynamics at KNMI, you will analyze climate model simulations to improve our understanding of abrupt climate shifts and tipping points. Your work will contribute to an “Abrupt Change Catalogue,” helping to assess risks and inform mitigation policies. You will also develop early detection techniques for abrupt changes, supporting international efforts to enhance climate resilience.

Will this be your next challenge? Read on!

What will you be doing?

You will work together with Prof. Sybren Drijfhout on the detection and analysis of regime shifts, abrupt climate change, tipping points and early warning signals in future climate change simulations (including overshoot scenarios in terms of global warming), performed by state-of-the-art earth system models by applying, improving and extending existing search and detection algorithms.

Part of this work has already been performed by a postdoc leaving after 2 years and Sybren Drijfhout. You will work with python scripts that were developed in the project, tailor them to new variables to be investigated and work together with Sybren Drijfhout on making a catalogue on tipping points in the vegetation/carbon system in addition to the already (nearly) completed catalogue on the ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice system.

In addition, Sybren Drijfhout and the postdoc are working with international experts on high-profile papers on the increased risk of collapse of the AMOC (Gulfstream) and disappearance of year-round Arctic sea-ice. The new postdoc will contribute to another paper on the impacts of an AMOC collapse for Western Europe and further research into precursors of AMOC Tipping, focusing on the collapse of deep (convective) mixing in the northern North Atlantic/Arctic oceans. These analyses will be performed in collaboration with partners from a.o. the University of Exeter, the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

This gives you energy

You are driven by curiosity and a passion for understanding the complex dynamics of the earth’s climate system. Analyzing climate model simulations, identifying tipping points, and improving Earth System Models (ESMs) excites you. You enjoy working in international research projects, working with cutting-edge climate models, and contributing to solutions for pressing global challenges. The fact that your work can help inform policies, enhance early warning systems, and improve climate resilience motivates you. You thrive in an environment where scientific innovation meets real life impact.

The project

This position is part of the EU-funded international OptiMESM project (Optimal High Resolution Earth System Models for Exploring Future Climate Changes), which will develop a novel generation of Earth system models (ESMs), by combining high resolution with an unprecedented representation of key physical and biogeochemical processes.

OptimESM will also develop new policy-relevant emission and land use scenarios. Using these scenarios, OptimESM will deliver long-term projections that will increase our understanding of the risk for triggering potential tipping points in phenomena such as ice sheets, sea ice, ocean circulation, marine ecosystems, permafrost, and terrestrial ecosystems. OptimESM will further our understanding of the processes controlling such tipping points, attribute the risk of exceeding various tipping points to the level of global warming, and develop a range of techniques to forewarn the occurrence of tipping points in the real world.

This position is also part of the EU-funded international TipESM project (Exploring Tipping Points and Their Impacts Using Earth System Models). TipESM brings together scientists from a range of disciplines to deliver a step change in our understanding of climate tipping points in the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe future emission pathways that minimise the risk of exceeding such tipping points.

TipESM assembles the latest Earth System Models (ESMs), including recent improvements to key processes: ice sheets, vegetation and land use, permafrost, marine and terrestrial biogeochemistry. In cooperation with the WCRP/Future-Earth project TIPMIP, TipESM will organise an international collaboration to design and realise a common ESM experiment protocol that will facilitate analysis of the likelihood of occurrence, and potential reversibility, of tipping elements at different levels and duration of global warming. These experiments, will be combined with more project-specific ESM experiments, designed to investigate interactions and feedbacks across the Earth system.

Based on the TipESM experiments, existing simulations and observations, we will investigate tipping points, their driving processes, potential early warning signals and cascading effects across the climate, ecosystems and society. Including the most important components of the Earth system in our ESMs will also allow TipESM to identify potentially unknown tipping elements, their precursors and impacts.

In these projects the scientists at KNMI will work on improving the EC-Earth model, executing model runs, analyzing tipping points and abrupt climate changes in other models, and assessing regional weather extremes.

Functie-eisen

• you have a completed PhD in meteorology, physical oceanography, climate science, or related fields of study like physics or applied mathematics
• you have affinity with developing theoretical/mathematical models, programming and analysis of large datasets applying statistical methods

You recognize yourself in the following characteristics:

In addition to the requirements, you recognize yourself in the following characteristics: you enjoy thinking of new ways to generate new solutions. You regularly exchange knowledge, information and ideas with others in the team, and actively seek feedback on your own ideas. You are steadfast and adhere to scientific integrity. Furthermore, you have a results-oriented attitude, and the skills to manage your work in a timely manner.

Advantageous skills/experience:

It would be an advantage if you have (some) knowledge of dynamical systems theory and some experience in complex system studies.