Postdoc in Risk Assessment of Weather- and Climate Extremes

Are you interested in studying extreme and compound weather events and evaluating their cross-sectoral impacts in the context of climate change? Do you enjoy working at the forefront of interdisciplinary research and collaborating with stakeholders across the water-energy-land nexus in the Netherlands? Join our interdisciplinary team to tackle these pressing challenges!

Your job

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Compound events, where multiple extremes occur simultaneously or in close succession, often result in significantly greater impacts and damages that are difficult to predict, mitigate and manage. For example, heavy precipitation during a storm surge can prevent rainwater from draining into the sea, exacerbating the risk of coastal flooding. Other examples include "dark doldrums" (calm, overcast conditions leading to renewable energy shortfalls), "hot droughts" (co-occurring heatwaves and droughts), and wildfires driven by drought and strong winds (as seen in the recent California fire).

Compound events are more complex than single extreme weather events because they often involve multiple hydroclimatic factors interacting, even if these factors aren't extreme on their own. Their impacts can cross sectors and system boundaries, depending on local adaptability. For example, the "hot drought" in the European summer of 2018 reduced water availability and quality, creating competition for water among energy production, agriculture, households, shipping, and cooling critical infrastructure. Traditional methods for analysing these events often focus on one discipline, overlook connections between sectors, and miss the impact of events driven by non-extreme factors. A broader, interdisciplinary approach is needed to address these challenges.

This project aims to develop a comprehensive methodology to characterise compound events within the water-land-energy nexus. It integrates multidisciplinary data and expertise from fields such as mathematics, climate science, hydrology, energy science, and ecology, complemented by evidence gathered through participatory research and stakeholder engagement.

The methodology will be designed to be robust and adaptable, addressing the specific needs of each discipline while providing a unified framework to understand compound events and their impacts. It will serve as a valuable tool for decision-makers to manage compound events and adapt to future challenges. For validation, the methodology will be applied in a case study in the Netherlands to identify historical compound events and assess their impacts, such as the 2021 summer flooding in Limburg caused by heavy rainfall, saturated soils, and peak streamflows. The study also aims to uncover novel types of compound events and expand the existing catalogue.

You will develop the above-mentioned methodology with the support of a multidisciplinary team of supervisors and advisors, which includes three main phases:

1. Critical Assessment of Existing Methods

• Evaluate the strengths and limitations of current methods through literature reviews and consultations with multidisciplinary experts.
• Assess techniques such as threshold selection criteria for defining extremes, probability distributions (bounded and unbounded), and advanced statistical methods like multivariate extreme value theory and copulas for modeling dependencies between risk drivers.

2. Methodology Development and Refinement

• Build upon the critical assessment to unify and refine existing approaches.
• Ensure the new methodology meets practical needs across disciplines while adhering to the principles of mathematical modeling.

3. Integration of Multidisciplinary Expertise and Stakeholder Feedback

• Validate the methodology by applying it to historical compound events in the Netherlands.
• Incorporate insights and feedback from key stakeholders.
• Conduct causal chain analyses to assess potential impacts of compound events within the water-energy-land nexus.

You will be part of the WELCOME (Water-Energy-Land impacts of COMpound weather Events) signature project, funded by the Pathways to Sustainability community at Utrecht University. You will collaborate within a diverse consortium of scholars from both natural and social sciences, engage with multi-sectoral stakeholders, and get the unique opportunity to build up a large network. The research will be conducted at theCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development within the Faculty of Geosciences at Utrecht University, in close collaboration with colleagues from other faculties.

Your qualities

• You hold a PhD in climate science, hydrology, mathematics, environmental sciences, risk assessment, energy sciences, quantitative finance, integrated assessment modelling or similar field.
• You have a strong interest in multidisciplinary research.
• You have an understanding of climate modelling, hydrology modelling or climate impact assessment.
• You have experience in quantitative analysis & statistics.
• You have a background in programming with Python, Matlab or R, ideally experienced with spatio-temporal datasets.
• You have strong communication skills.

Our offer

We offer:

• a postdoc position (0.8 FTE) for one year;
• a gross monthly salary between €3,378 and €5,331 in the case of full-time employment (salary scale 10 under the Collective Labour Agreement for Dutch Universities (CAO NU));
• 8% holiday pay and 8.3% year-end bonus;
• a pension scheme, partially paid parental leave and flexible terms of employment based on the CAO NU.