PhD Position Systemic Risk in Climate-Sensitive Housing Markets

Join the ERC SPHINX team to model how climate risks ripple through housing markets, uncover when homes become stranded assets, and help shape climate-resilient policies.

This 4-year fully funded PhD position is part of the ERC Consolidator project Systemic physical climate risk in complex adaptive economies (SPHINX). The SPHINX research program is made possible thanks to a 2-million-euro grant from the European Research Council.

Background

Globally, climate change already manifests via physical risks – damages from floods, storms, wildfires, heatwaves, droughts, and sea-level rise. Concerns are rising that these risks may become systemic, when local damages to one element cannot be contained and adversely affect the entire socio-economic system.

Usually, physical climate risk assessments overlay hazard probability, exposure and vulnerability. These future damage estimates linearly extrapolate historic data, assuming that markets efficiently capitalize full information about climate risks and adjust gradually, economic actors have perfect future insight, and socio-economic systems will react to and price unprecedented climate-induced hazards as they did in the past. This approach is criticized for underestimating the true costs of climate change, impeding climate action.

In contrast, analysis of systemic risks embraces complex interactions among elements and agents, adjusting expectations, mechanisms of contagion dynamics, feedbacks, and non-linear tipping. The SPHINX research program aims to fundamentally advance simulation methods and consolidate novel data to understand how systemic physical climate risks emerge in the socio-economic system, and to explore strategies to curtail their spiraling costs.

The project focuses on Europe, with a detailed analysis of three selected case-study regions. Methodologically, SPHINX embraces five pillars, ranging from data collecting to agent-based and computable general equilibrium modeling led by five team members. The first three pillars concern the development of computational agent-based models to explore three different channels of risk propagation. The current PhD position specifically focuses on advancing agent-based housing market models.

Job description

The successful candidate will work within the SPHINX research team to explore interactions between households and banks in the presence of increasing climate physical risks.

To explore price dynamics in climate-sensitive areas, the candidate will develop a set of agent-based housing market models supported by theory and data for a range of scales, from urban to regional.

During this 4-year project, the PhD student will build on the latest progress in housing market agent-based modeling, including work such as RHEA and Bank of England models, and advance it by introducing adaptive price expectations of households and climate-aware policies of the financial sector, including banks and insurance.

Synthesizing knowledge on the socio-behavioral and economic mechanisms through which housing markets capture hazard risks and on possible cross-scale risk transfers will be essential. This modeling effort will benefit from behavioral data on expectations elicited via tailored household surveys carried out by another team member, as well as other spatial and physical climate risk data.

The goal of this agent-based modeling is to identify conditions under which risk contagion causes housing to become stranded assets and contributes to climate gentrification, with corresponding policy levers to avert these systemic failures.

Job requirements

A candidate should ideally have:

• MSc in Computational Science, Geography, Spatial Economics, Environmental Studies, or Engineering & Policy Analysis
• Knowledge of a programming language such as Python or Julia, and training in simulation methods
• Experience with statistical data analysis
• Previous experience with agent-based modeling or spatial modeling is beneficial
• Ability to work with spatial data/GIS is an asset
• Domain knowledge in coupled social-environmental systems, climate change, or global environmental change is an advantage
• Solid problem-solving skills and capacity to take the initiative
• Fluent written and spoken English
• Dutch is not obligatory; TU Delft offers opportunities to learn the language if desired

About TU Delft

Delft University of Technology is a top international university combining science, engineering and design. It delivers world-class results in education, research and innovation to address challenges in the areas of energy, climate, mobility, health and digital society.

For generations, its engineers have proven to be entrepreneurial problem-solvers, both in business and in a social context.

Faculty Technology, Policy and Management

The Faculty of TPM provides an important contribution to solving complex technical-social issues, such as energy transition, mobility, digitalisation, water management and (cyber) security. It does this through excellent education and research at the intersection of technology, society and policy, combining insights from engineering, social sciences and the humanities.

TPM develops robust models and designs, is internationally oriented and has an extensive network of knowledge institutions, companies, social organisations and governments.

Conditions of employment

Doctoral candidates will be offered a 4-year period of employment in principle, in the form of two employment contracts: an initial 1.5-year contract with an official go/no-go progress assessment within 15 months, followed by an additional contract for the remaining 2.5 years assuming performance requirements are met.

As a PhD candidate you will be enrolled in the TU Delft Graduate School. The TU Delft Graduate School provides an inspiring research environment with an excellent team of supervisors, academic staff and a mentor. The Doctoral Education Programme is aimed at developing your transferable, discipline-related and research skills.

TU Delft offers a customisable compensation package, discounts on health insurance, and a monthly work costs contribution. Flexible work schedules can be arranged.

If relocation to the Netherlands is required, TU Delft offers support to help make the move as smooth as possible, including relocation information, events to help you settle in Delft, and a Dual Career Programme to support an accompanying partner with their job search in the Netherlands.