PhD Position on Strengthening Mortgage Portfolio Resilience to Physical Climate Risks

Join our TU Delft team to explore how physical climate risks reshape house prices and ripple into mortgage portfolios, and help make homeowners and lenders more resilient to climate hazards.

Background

Real estate is a key foundation of global wealth and has long been viewed as a safe asset. For most people, buying a home is the largest financial investment of their lifetime. Physical climate risks such as floods, droughts, storms, and wildfires challenge that assumption. Conventional, backward-looking climate risk assessments capture direct damages but overlook indirect effects such as value depreciation and asset stranding. In a climate-affected future, the value of exposed properties may structurally change, challenging the financial health of both homeowners and the financial sector that holds their mortgages.

Job description

This fully funded 4-year PhD project asks whether, where and when local property damage from physical climate risks systematically harms homeowners (micro level) and could scale up into portfolio-wide mortgage defaults for lenders (macro level). The empirical focus is the Netherlands, with two concrete hazards: flooding and drought-induced foundation damage to homes. Focusing on diverse climate risk owners, this PhD project will explore how different risk mitigation instruments help reduce inequalities and overall damages.

Methodologically, the project will rely on spatially explicit computational Agent-Based Models (ABMs) of housing markets, combined with stakeholder workshops and a survey. Leveraging existing models such as the RHEA ABM and Bank of England ABM, you will design and advance ABMs that combine climate projections (e.g. KNMI, PBL, Klimaateffectatlas) with behavioural and market dynamics, and use them to assess the climate-mortgage-property value nexus. The aim is to trace how shifting perceptions of physical climate risk work their way into property values, and onward into the financial position of homeowners and lenders, and to weigh the strategies that could strengthen resilience on both sides. This modelling is complemented by statistical and econometric data analysis, engagement with relevant stakeholders, and a tailored homeowners survey.

You will be based at TU Delft at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, within the Multi-Actor Systems department, working closely with Prof. Tatiana Filatova and Dr. Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis research group on systemic climate risk in complex adaptive economies. Wider collaboration with the TU Delft Faculty of Architecture and Delft Climate Action Program is foreseen. You will join a multidisciplinary team spanning computational modelling, behavioural research and climate-risk analysis, and engage directly with stakeholders from the financial sector and public institutions. Positioned at the interface of climate finance and agent-based modelling, your work will have a clear path to real-world impact on how climate risks are priced and managed in mortgage lending.

Job requirements

A successful candidate will have:

• Demonstrable prior experience with agent-based modelling (ABM). This is a core requirement for the position.
• An MSc in Economics, Spatial/Environmental/Financial Economics, Computational Science, Complex Systems, Geography, Engineering & Policy Analysis, or a closely related field.
• Strong programming skills in a scientific language such as Python or Julia.
• Experience with statistical and/or econometric data analysis.
• Ability to work with spatial data/GIS is an asset.
• Domain interest in housing and mortgage markets, climate-risk pricing, financial stability, or coupled social-environmental systems is an advantage.
• Willingness to engage with financial-sector and policy stakeholders, and to contribute to survey design.
• Solid problem-solving skills and the capacity to take initiative.
• Fluent written and spoken English.

Dutch is not obligatory; TU Delft offers opportunities to learn the language if desired.

TU Delft as an employer

The Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management contributes to solving complex technical-social issues such as energy transition, mobility, digitalisation, water management and security. It works at the intersection of technology, society and policy, combining insights from engineering, social sciences and the humanities. The faculty develops robust models and designs, is internationally oriented and has an extensive network of knowledge institutions, companies, social organisations and governments.

As a PhD candidate you will be enrolled in the TU Delft Graduate School. The TU Delft Graduate School provides an inspiring research environment with an excellent team of supervisors, academic staff and a mentor. The Doctoral Education Programme is aimed at developing your transferable, discipline-related and research skills.

TU Delft offers a customisable compensation package, discounts on health insurance, a monthly work costs contribution, and flexible work schedules.

Conditions of employment

Doctoral candidates will be offered a 4-year period of employment in principle, structured as two employment contracts: an initial 1.5-year contract with an official go/no-go progress assessment within 15 months, followed by an additional contract for the remaining 2.5 years, assuming performance requirements are met.

If relocation to the Netherlands is needed, TU Delft offers support to help make the move as smooth as possible, including services and events to help you settle in Delft and expand your social network. A Dual Career Programme is available to support an accompanying partner with their job search in the Netherlands.